Main points

• Agricultural activities account for about 90% of global forest loss, with timber, palm oil and cocoa being particularly significant commodities. European over-consumption acts as a core driver, positioning the EUDR as a necessary policy response to this demand-side issue.
• Corruption threatens to undermine the three EUDR pillars (deforestation-free, legality and due diligence). Acts such as falsifying land registry data, bribing forestry officials and manipulating cadastral records could enable deforestation-linked commodities to still enter EU markets under a false veneer of compliance.
• Supply chain complexity also creates manipulation opportunities. Fragmented commodity chains with multiple intermediaries enable corrupt actors to mix illegal products with legal batches, falsify origin certificates and obscure true production sources. These risks are particularly prevalent in cocoa sectors where only 40% of supply is directly traceable.
• Integrated data systems offer a high-impact, replicable anti-corruption model. Ghana's approach, which links forest, cocoa, land administration and environmental data across agencies, creates a traceable and accountable framework that significantly inhibits fraudulent conversions and illegal permits.
• The EUDR's long-term success hinges on catalysing lasting governance reforms. Experts argue that market access conditionality should be strategically applied to counter rent-seeking, bolster domestic reform allies, protect smallholders from exclusion and strengthen institutional integrity in producer countries.